(If anyone knows for definite that the HD4000 can cope with the higher expansion packs without burning itself out, I'd love to know!) I'm sure the HD4000 is notably better than the GMA4500, but I decided to leave it at Seasons to be on the safe side. But according to the info for the most recent Intel chip listed, the GMA4500, the highest 'Maybe' for that chip is Seasons.
I always consult the Sims Wiki for which expansion pack level my current graphics chip can cope with:, but unfortunately the HD4000 isn't on the list. It's a Lenovo G500 with 8GB RAM (it came with 4GB, I installed another 4GB because 4GB is really too little for Win 8.1, especially for running games), Intel i3 2.4 GHz processor and Intel HD4000 graphics.
I just got a new laptop with Windows 8.1, and TS2 runs fine on it (I run it from the game executable file BTW, not the Launcher).